By some measures, the Warriors might have chosen the right year to have a league-worst record. Few will remember this Golden State season if the NBA can’t hold the playoffs and the Warriors return to contention in 2020-21.
But that doesn’t change the fact that, like every other team in the league, Golden State will take a major financial hit from the coronavirus shutdown. In this week’s mailbag, we explain just how far-reaching of a toll the pandemic could take on the Warriors, as well as field the rest of your pressing questions:
@imuirhucklebery: With the salary cap most likely getting lowered next year, does this help or hurt the Warriors and other teams?
As I detailed in a story last month, a lowered salary cap could have significant repercussions for teams already in the luxury tax. The Warriors are on track to have a luxury-tax bill of $47.7 million.
If the salary cap dropped $10 million (a plausible scenario given how much the NBA stands to lose during the coronavirus crisis), Golden State would be saddled with a $195 million luxury-tax bill. That’s $15 million more than it’d be paying for its entire $180 million roster.
Such a massive luxury-tax burden could force majority owner Joe Lacob, who has long been willing to spend big in the name of winning big, to try to minimize costs. Perhaps the Warriors land a player who makes less than the full amount of their $17.2 million trade exception, or they decide not to use the full taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency.
The good news for Golden State: If next season’s salary cap drops, every team would have to deal with the fallout. That actually could help the Warriors acquire a better player with the trade exception than they might have otherwise.
@buck342: What has happened to Draymond’s offense? Seems to have fallen off dramatically the last couple years.
I wouldn’t read too much into Green’s lack of offensive production this season. This is someone who needs stakes and great counterparts to be at his best, neither of which were consistently available. With a healthy Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry in the fold next season, I expect Green to be a helpful offensive piece, dishing out assists at a high rate and knocking down open jumpers.
In four of five years leading up to this season, he shot at least 44.3% from the field. Green, like any player, benefits greatly from the extra spacing a couple of the best shooters in NBA history provide.
@RimRunninRagged: Are the Warriors going to be seriously financially impacted by the COVID19-related shutdowns (lack of events at Chase Center, for example)?
The biggest potential financial repercussion from the coronavirus shutdown was outlined in the answer to the first question about the salary cap. As the only NBA team currently eliminated from the playoffs, the Warriors already were going to miss out on the revenue they’re accustomed to getting from a potential postseason run.
If Golden State doesn’t play its final seven home games, it’ll lose at least $25 million at the gate alone. That’s on top of all the money the Warriors won’t get from Chase Center concerts and events that had to be canceled. Though it’s tricky to estimate how much money that will be, just under a quarter of Golden State’s recent $4.3 billion valuation by Forbes was attributed to its arena.
That being said, the Warriors should be fine long-term. I’d be surprised if Golden State needed to resort to such drastic measures as layoffs.
@busterbivin: Who is your favorite prospect in the draft?
I’m of the mind-set that, if the Warriors get the No. 1 pick, they should keep things simple and take Georgia’s Anthony Edwards. As I explained in a story last month, Edwards’ combination of youth, athleticism and strength gives him probably the best chance of anyone in this draft of becoming a perennial All-Star.
Even if he doesn’t reach those heights, I see him, at worst, becoming a very valuable rotation player for 10-plus years. Should the Warriors not land the No. 1 pick, the three players I’m hearing are high on Golden State’s draft board are Iowa State’s Tyrese Haliburton, Israel’s Deni Avdija and Auburn’s Isaac Okoro.
I like all three of those prospects, for different reasons. Haliberton, in my opinion, is a point guard whose skills project better in the NBA than both Killian Hayes and LaMelo Ball. Avdija is a versatile wing who, if he can develop a reliable jump shot, has a chance to become elite. Okoro reminds me some of Andre Iguodala, in that he’s a defensive-oriented wing who can provide efficient offense when necessary.
@dalanmcnabola: The Warriors have two 2nd rounders in this draft. They can’t keep all of them, right? Use them as sweeteners in potential trades?
I’d be surprised if the Warriors kept both of their second-round picks. Though Golden State could save a little money by rounding out its roster with late second-round selections, I think it values the likes of Ky Bowman and Mychal Mulder — both of whom aren’t under guaranteed contracts — too much to give away their spots to a little-known rookie.
My guess is that, if the Warriors kept both picks, they’d use at least one of them on a draft-and-stash prospect. There are several players such as Latvia’s Arturs Zagars or Arturs Kurucs, Italy’s Paul Eboua or France’s Abdoulaye N’Doye who could develop into legitimate NBA players after a couple more years overseas.
@noiserawker: Just saw that Looney had surgery and now is expected to come back healthy next year. Does this change the calculus at center?
The Warriors are hopeful that an extended offseason will offer Looney the rest he needs to return to the player who warranted a three-year, $15 million contract last summer. But given his slew of ailments this season, I’m not convinced he’s out of the woods.
We won’t know until he’s back on an NBA court whether Looney can return to his reliable ways. If he can, I think a center rotation anchored by Looney and Marquese Chriss would be adequate for the Warriors — especially given that their system doesn’t call for a high-scoring big man.
But if Looney continues to struggle, Golden State might want to bring in a rotation-caliber center. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Warriors used their mid-level exception on a center just for insurance purposes.
@LitoTrillz: In an already “weak” draft, why does it seem like the Warriors would rather trade down? Just a salary issue?
I’m not sure why so many people seem convinced that the Warriors will trade down. Personally, I’m not confident that Golden State will receive a trade offer good enough to warrant moving down.
If the Warriors get the No. 1 pick in the draft, I’d expect them to keep it. The odds of them trading down will go up significantly if they land anywhere else in the top five. But contrary to popular opinion, it is far from guaranteed that Golden State will move down. It likes multiple players, including Okoro, Haliburton and Avdija, whom it could perhaps grab in the latter part of the top five.
Connor Letourneau covers the Warriors for The San Francisco Chronicle. Email: cletourneau@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @Con_Chron
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