ORLANDO, Fla. – The peak of hurricane season continues and the Atlantic is blazing hot with tropical waves to watch. Even with a lot of activity around Florida, most of these areas are not a concern to the state.
The area with the highest chance for development in the short term resides in the Bay of Campeche/Southern Gulf of Mexico.
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Disturbance 1: Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico
A tropical depression is expected to form later Sunday while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Sunday, and potential tropical cyclone advisories could be initiated later today.
A potential tropical cyclone is a system that is not meteorologically a tropical depression or tropical storm, but is expected to become one.
There is 90% chance for development over the next couple of days.
Disturbance 2: Near the Bahamas
An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern Bahamas in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. While this system likely won’t directly impact Florida, it could impact the Inspiration 4 launch from Cape Canaveral Wednesday.
There is a 40% chance for development over the next five days.
Disturbance 3: Over Africa
The wave to pay the most attention to would be the area given a 60% chance for development. This area of low pressure is expected to emerge off of the coast of Africa and move south of the Cabo Verde islands by the middle of next week.
There is a 60% chance for development over the next five days.
Disturbance 4: Near the Cabo Verde Islands
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing. By the middle of the week, unfavorable upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit development.
There is a 30% chance for development over the next two and five days.
Disturbance 5: North Atlantic near the Azores
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week.
There is a 20% chance for development over the next two and five days.
The next named storms would be Nicholas, Odette and Peter. Hurricane season runs through Nov 30.
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September 12, 2021 at 04:16PM
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Hurricane center monitoring 5 areas in the tropics - WKMG News 6 & ClickOrlando
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