The current coronavirus surge in Michigan and elsewhere could be the election season’s October surprise.
Michigan is now averaging 2,879 coronavirus cases a day, triple the average a month ago. Seventy-one of Michigan’s 83 counties have reported more new coronavirus cases in October than any other month of the pandemic. A majority of those counties have set new records in the past week, with no end in sight.
With Tuesday’s election only days away, the fact that coronavirus is once again dominating the headlines has the potential to impact Tuesday’s election.
Republicans say they’re not worried, and the massive turnouts at the president’s recent rallies in Michigan shows the depth and breadth of his support.
“You had people who tried to camp out at the Lansing airport the night before” a rally Tuesday, said Andrea Bitely, a strategist at Truscott Rossman, a Lansing-based public relations firm with Republican ties. “You can’t argue with the fact that people walked miles to get to these events, or the lines outside of them. It’s pretty amazing to see the enthusiasm there.”
Other political observers say the current surge could be the nail in the coffin for President Trump in the Upper Midwest, by focusing voter attention on an issue where the president is polling poorly.
“I think the entire race is a referendum on Donald Trump, and in the last eight months, it’s become a referendum on his abdication of the fight against coronavirus,” said Jeff Timmer, a former longtime Republican strategist in Michigan who is now part of the Lincoln Project, which is a group of conservatives working to defeat Trump.
The fact Trump is holding large campaign rallies in defiance of public health orders, with many of the attendees ignoring recommendations to wear a mask or socially distance, is horrifying to many voters, Timmer said, creating negative publicity that hurts more than helps the president’s re-election effort.
The rallies are “an overall net negative, and there’s data to back that up,” Timmer said.
“The pictures from the Lansing rally are unbelievable," he said. “People across the country looking at these events are just shaking their heads. It’s also astounding because all Trump does is talk about his denial of COVID or continuing to stoke this terrorist violence against (Gov. Gretchen) Whitmer.”
Almost two-thirds of Michigan voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of coronavirus, said Bernie Porn, pollster for Epic MRA in Lansing. Likewise, his polling indicates about 63% percent of Michigan voters favor a national mask mandate for public indoor spaces, and 61% think Trump’s recent bout of coronavirus resulted from his own carelessness about the virus.
The president’s handling of coronavirus is the big reason that former Vice President Joe Biden is now polling better than Trump among Michigan senior citizens, Porn added.
“Seniors are very concerned about the virus, and some of his messaging -- saying ‘it is what it is’ about the deaths, and saying ‘let’s open up the economy more' -- to seniors, that feels like he’s throwing them under the bus," he said.
The current headlines only fuel that anxiety, he said. “There’s no more hospital bed space in Wisconsin. Michigan is having the largest surge since this began. Of course, that is making an impact.”
Coronavirus also could impact Tuesday’s turnout if people who planned to vote in person end up staying home for fear of catching the virus, observers say.
That could hurt Republicans more than Democrats considering the majority of Biden supporters have told pollsters they planned to vote absentee, while a majority of Trump supporters plan to vote in person. Porn said he anticipates about 60% of the voters on Tuesday will be Republicans.
On the other hand, the current surge could depress the in-person vote more among Biden supporters, since they’re much more likely to be worried about infection, some say.
“I think we’ll see most dedicated Republicans voting in person on Tuesday,” Bitely said.
But Timmer argues that Trump has made a mistake by undermining confidence in absentee voting among his supporters. “They’re leaving it all to chance on Election Day,” he said. “Now you’ve got a surge in COVID that could make people think twice about voting on Election Day because it’s not safe."
Or maybe the current surge won’t make a difference all, considering that the polls have barely moved for months and there are very few undecided voters.
“Anyone angry with Trump’s rallies would have been inclined to vote against him anyway,” said Bill Ballenger, a longtime Michigan political analyst. "The current surge may have a slight dampening effect on in-person voting on Election Day itself, but I really don’t say it’s going to be significant.
“I think the die is pretty well cast right now," he said.
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