It wasn’t so long ago that it would be unfair to judge a coach until he had one full recruiting class. That meant a minimum of four years until forming an honest opinion of his performance.
Now?
Look at what Shaka Smart is doing at Marquette or the work of T.J. Otzelberger at Iowa State. Similar sentiments can be made for Tommy Lloyd (Arizona), Mark Adams (Texas Tech) and Mike Woodson (Indiana). Five programs with first-year coaches that all appear headed for the NCAA Tournament. Only Texas Tech was a tournament team a year ago, meaning four of the five schools have made significant leaps.
Quality coaches don’t need time anymore. The transfer market, and to a lesser extent quality freshmen, have sped up the process. A majority of teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 include difference-making transfers. The above-mentioned coaches have all benefited from newcomers to overachieve immediately. Landing impact transfers is just as important as high school recruiting. An argument can be made that it actually trumps it now that transfers are allowed to switch schools once without sitting out.
It also enables quick turnarounds for the right coaching staffs. But there is another side to this. It shows that fast fixes are possible. Athletic directors, school administrators and fan bases have no reason to be extra patient with a new coach when there are others out there proving change can happen right away. You don’t need multiple years anymore. The right coach, along with the right transfers, can flip a program’s fortunes fast.
These are five distinct examples of that to point to, and possibly less patience moving forward for coaches that don’t start winning immediately. Just another way of how the transfer portal is changing in college basketball.
Gael force
With every victory, Iona enters into new territory: A MAAC program with at-large NCAA Tournament chances. As long as Rick Pitino and the Gaels remain perfect in MAAC action, it remains a possibility.
Iona has a strong NET ranking (56), owns a major victory over Alabama and has a 3-3 record in Quad 1 & 2 games. On Tuesday, it won what will likely be its toughest conference game of the year, at Monmouth in overtime, and followed that up by knocking off Quinnipiac on Sunday. According to Bracket Matrix, which averages out 89 Bracketology projections, Iona would be a 12-seed if the season ended today.
Ultimately, I don’t see it happening, because of how difficult it is to go an entire league season without a loss — it has never happened in conference history before — and I also expect Iona to win the MAAC Tournament, anyway. But it also wouldn’t be smart to doubt Pitino. He’s coached 21 MAAC games and won 18 of them.
Beast of the East
Villanova lost at home this week and it wasn’t a surprise. That’s not a knock on the 11th-ranked Wildcats. It’s a credit to the depth in the top half of the Big East. This is the best it has been since the formation of the new conference nine years ago. Marquette, which knocked off Jay Wright’s team at Villanova on Wednesday, is the hottest team in the league with six straight wins. Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall and UConn are all formidable. Creighton is young, but capable and on the bubble. It looks like a seven-bid league. But even more importantly, the conference in its current form has the potential to advance three or more teams into the second weekend for the first time.
Game of the Week
No. 3 Arizona at No. 9 UCLA, Tuesday, 11 p.m.
Put your children to bed and get your coffee ready. This will be a late night, but it’s worth it to see two Final Four contenders meet for the first time this season. UCLA was expected to be this highly ranked after returning its entire team from its Final Four run. Arizona is the big surprise — it was unranked in the preseason — with just one loss, at Tennessee, under new coach Tommy Lloyd. It’s worth staying up just to watch NBA prospects Ben Mathurin and Johnny Juzang go at each other.
Super 16
A prediction of the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (listed in order):
1: Auburn, Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas
2: Duke, Purdue, LSU, Villanova
3: Houston, Arizona, Michigan State, Wisconsin
4: Texas Tech, UCLA, Kentucky, Alabama
Stock Watch
Up: Bob McKillop
At the age of 71, the man still can coach. The Queens native has one of his best teams this year, a legitimate contender for an at-large bid as the Atlantic 10’s best team. Looking to reach its first NCAA Tournament in four years, Davidson has a NET ranking of 39, a 3-2 mark against Quad 1 and 2 teams, and has defeated SEC power Alabama. McKillop has done this despite losing his top player, Kellan Grady, to Kentucky and developing sharpshooting South Korean wing Hyunjung Lee into a potential NBA draft pick.
Up: Indiana
This isn’t the same team that has folded in recent years, that couldn’t take a punch, that would get pushed around in big moments. It has proven to be far tougher under new coach Mike Woodson, capable of responding in difficult situations. Thursday’s home win over Purdue, despite a season-low four points from star Trayce Jackson-Davis, was the latest example. The Hoosiers are NCAA Tournament-good for the first time in six seasons despite Sunday’s home loss to a hot-shooting Michigan team that was due to bust out.
Down: Mike Anderson
Anderson overachieved in his first two seasons in Queens, getting the most out of underwhelming rosters. He was the Big East Coach of the Year last season after a fourth-place finish. This winter, he has significantly underachieved despite the return of junior star Julian Champagnie. Expected to be an NCAA Tournament team, St. John’s doesn’t even have an NIT résumé. It is 0-6 in Quad 1 games. Attendance is down and frustration is up. Anderson’s record of never having a losing year in 19 seasons as a head coach is in jeopardy.
Down: Syracuse
It’s going to be strange, entering March without Syracuse on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Even if the Orange get hot, and there is no indication that will happen, the sad state of the ACC doesn’t present enough opportunities for them to get into the mix. The loss of transfers Quincy Guerrier (Oregon) and Kadary Richmond (Seton Hall) has been crippling to this unathletic team. Syracuse, with an 9-10 record, could suffer its first losing season since 1968-69.
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Coaches making big impact in record time with new schools - New York Post
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