Fred is that you? - WJXT News4JAX

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center gives this a 30% chance of developing over the next two days and a 30% chance of developing off the Florida coast over the next five days.

Aaahh... Too low.

See the satellite picture, there is already a developing circulation center. It will not take much more for this to be classified as a tropical depression. I suspect that will happen late Saturday.

Then what?

Forecast models are not particularly interested in developing this area of low pressure. Often times forecast models, especially the global forecast models, don’t develop tropical systems that are in particularly high atmospheric pressure. This looks to be the case with this current system. FWIW, Elsa was another system that never had particularly low pressure.

To me, the Euro forecast model seems to have the best handle of this system and if this is correct, then we will see a weak tropical storm form (max winds 40 mph) sometime on Sunday. The inhibiting factors for this system will be, close proximity to the Florida East Coast, dry air above 25,000′ along with moderately strong upper level winds. Nothing that strong convection couldn’t overcome. So, as long as we see strong convection, this system should slowly develop.

Whether it develops, or not, what’s the impact on Jacksonville?

The European forecast model shows this system will back westward into Florida. This means we could see heavy rains return to the area on Monday. These rains could be locally heavy and coastal winds may peak around 30-35 mph if everything comes together.

Just stay alert as you enjoy your weekend.

The moisture will spill back westward on to Florida and Georgia on MONDAY

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