Forecasting Elsa’s impact on NE Florida & SE Georgia - WJXT News4JAX

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical Storm Elsa is compact with tropical storm winds extending out 70 miles but speeds have not dropped off overnight, remaining at 65 mph mostly to the eastern side. It will be going over Cuba, today and further strengthening is not expected until it gets back over water.

Elsa will cross central or western Cuba this morning, then cross over the Straits of Florida near the Lower Florida Keys tonight or early Tuesday, and then along or very near the west coast of Florida later on Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most of the models show Elsa moving inland over west-central or northern Florida.

The National Hurricane Center kept Elsa as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds at 5 a.m. Monday.

Elsa is still expected to remain a weak tropical storm and follow the same expected track that the NHC has been advertising for days: A track to just west of Jacksonville overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Following the current NHC track, Elsa will reach Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia by midnight Tuesday (southern counties) and pass quickly by noon Wednesday (Georgia counties).

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Interactive map | THE LATEST: Animated update

My experience with these weaker systems has been there’s always one or two neighborhoods that will get slammed by isolated extreme thunderstorm winds and extreme rains.

Everyone else just “yawns” as local impacts will not be widespread.

• 2-5″ of rain will still be possible. Most areas will receive about 1-2″. For perspective, this is what we have been experiencing the past month. This will lead to minor to moderate impacts on backyard flooding.
• Only a slight threat of tornadoes/coastal waterspouts. Tornadoes would typically be an issue but the passage through our area will be at night and this will reduce the threat.
• Local wind gusts will be up to 40 mph but generally in the 15 to 25 mph range.

Red areas could see more than 4". Most will see 1-2"

Purple areas could see gusts to 40 mph. Of course squalls could create some wind gusts over 40 mph.

Will be possible as Elsa slides by, mainly Wednesday.

Downtown Jax will be subject to a possible small seiche.

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Forecasting Elsa’s impact on NE Florida & SE Georgia - WJXT News4JAX
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