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Newcomer Impact Rankings - Which college basketball freshmen, transfers will lead teams in 2021-22? - ESPN

With the NCAA passing one-time transfer waiver legislation last spring and the graduate transfer path still an option for players to move in the offseason, the number of immediately eligible college players is at an all-time high. So it no longer makes sense to separate preseason player rankings by transfers and freshmen -- all players enter the season with the same opportunity to make an immediate impact.

That's why we started grouping transfers and freshmen last October, and why we are doing it again. Below we take a look at the top 91 players -- and a handful of other notables -- whose wearing of new jerseys in the 2021-22 college basketball season will have the most substantive impact on their teams.

One reminder: This is a ranking based purely on expected impact during the 2021-22 season. It's not a mock draft and it's not a rehash of the recruiting rankings. For example, Michigan State's Max Christie was ranked behind classmates Nate Bittle (Oregon) and Moussa Diabate (Michigan) in the 2021 ESPN 100 -- but has a clearer path to an immediate impact from day one on a college basketball court.

1. Paolo Banchero, Duke (freshman): The fact that Banchero was named preseason ACC Player of the Year says it all. He will have the opportunity to put up huge numbers right off the bat, and he's the most college-ready freshman entering the sport.

2. Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga (freshman): As unique a talent as we've seen enter college basketball in a few years, Holmgren is going to be a huge factor at both ends of the floor. Might take a backseat to Drew Timme, but will still compete to be the No. 1 draft pick.

3. Marcus Carr, Texas (transfer): Carr is the headliner of Texas' transfer-heavy squad this season. He earned third-team All-Big Ten honors at Minnesota last season and will have the ball in his hands from day one in Austin.

4. Emoni Bates, Memphis (freshman): The hype surrounding Bates has quieted since early in his high school career, but he's still a terrific shot-maker who will have the ball in his hands plenty. Can he adapt as the primary playmaker and distributor for an elite team?

5. Remy Martin, Kansas (transfer): Kansas' only issue entering the offseason was the lack of a point guard -- in steps Martin, a two-time first-team All-Pac-12 selection. He'll need to adapt his game and become more of a distributor.

6. Patrick Baldwin Jr., Milwaukee (freshman): Baldwin should dominate the Horizon League right away. A matchup nightmare at the high school level, he has the size and skill set to create massive problems for mid-major opponents.

7. Jabari Smith, Auburn (freshman): Smith possesses an extremely high ceiling -- and has already made a huge impression early at Auburn. He has tremendous physical tools, but has also improved his all-around offensive game and ability to guard multiple positions.

8. Oscar Tshiebwe, Kentucky (transfer): One of the best big men in the country as a freshman at West Virginia, Tshiebwe struggled through 10 games last season before entering the transfer portal. He's generated positive buzz in the preseason.

9. Jalen Duren, Memphis (freshman): Duren will make his biggest impact defensively and on the glass, and should start threatening for double-doubles on a nightly basis pretty quickly. Will provide an anchor for Penny Hardaway's aggressive half-court defense.

10. TyTy Washington, Kentucky (freshman): Had one of the best senior seasons of anyone in high school basketball last season and is now penciled in to start immediately in the backcourt in Lexington. Competitive, good size and can make shots.

11. Matt Bradley, San Diego State (transfer): Could immediately become the best scorer in the Mountain West. Bradley averaged 18.0 points and earned second-team All-Pac-12 honors last season for California.

12. Dawson Garcia, North Carolina (transfer): Garcia should epitomize North Carolina's new-look offense under Hubert Davis. A skilled former McDonald's All-American, he averaged 13.0 points and 6.6 rebounds as a freshman at Marquette.

13. Kennedy Chandler, Tennessee (freshman): Will have as much on his plate as any freshman in the country, as the starting point guard for a projected top-20 team. Rick Barnes has surrounded him with plenty of pieces, but Chandler needs to be the guy.

14. Caleb Houstan, Michigan (freshman): Houstan could lead the Wolverines in scoring as a freshman, given his size and ability to make shots from the perimeter. He's expanded his all-around offensive game as his career has progressed, too.

15. James Akinjo, Baylor (transfer): Scott Drew needs to replace his entire title-winning backcourt, and Akinjo is at the forefront of that effort. He was a first-team All-Pac-12 point guard at Arizona last season and has been consistently productive in college, including at the start of his career with Georgetown.

16. Caleb Mills, Florida State (transfer): The Seminoles don't have much proven college production on the perimeter, but Mills could be the answer. He played in just four games at Houston last season, but was the AAC Preseason Player of the Year.

17. Tre Mitchell, Texas (transfer): In terms of skill and potential, Mitchell should be one of the best big men in the country. He dominated the Atlantic 10 for two seasons with UMass and hopes to carry that over to the Big 12. Put up 18.8 points last season.

18. Kellan Grady, Kentucky (transfer): Grady should be a staple in Kentucky's starting lineup this season. He's one of the more accomplished players in college basketball, scoring more than 2,000 career points at Davidson. High-level scorer.

19. Max Christie, Michigan State (freshman): Tom Izzo has a lot of talented and experienced pieces on his roster this season, but with Aaron Henry gone, he will need scoring. That's where Christie can step in. Early buzz out of East Lansing has been positive.

20. Garrison Brooks, Mississippi State (transfer): Ben Howland will hope Brooks returns to his junior season form at North Carolina, when he averaged 16.8 points and 8.5 rebounds and was named preseason ACC Player of the Year before last season.

21. Marreon Jackson, Arizona State (transfer): One of the best mid-major transfers available last spring, Jackson was MAC Player of the Year last season at Toledo and has reportedly looked very good in the preseason in Tempe. My Pac-12 Newcomer of the Year.

22. Kadary Richmond, Seton Hall (transfer): An intriguing prospect who continues to generate buzz in NBA circles. Richmond is long, he's improved his shooting, he's an excellent defensive player and he consistently controls the pace.

23. Quincy Guerrier, Oregon (transfer): Guerrier should be a perfect fit for Dana Altman's system, which has had plenty of success with versatile forwards in the past. Averaged 13.7 points and 8.4 rebounds last season at Syracuse.

24. Tyson Walker, Michigan State (transfer): Will start immediately at the point guard spot for the Spartans. An excellent two-way player, winning CAA Defensive Player of the Year honors at Northeastern and also averaging 18.8 points and 4.8 assists.

25. Bryce McGowens, Nebraska (freshman): Since the day he arrived on campus in Lincoln, it's been nothing but a steady stream of positive buzz surrounding McGowens. He can really score and possesses deep range on his jumper.

26. Kyler Edwards, Houston (transfer): Should be one of the best scorers in the AAC this season after averaging double figures each of the past two seasons at Texas Tech. Can shoot it from the perimeter and is performing well in the preseason.

27. Boogie Ellis, USC (transfer): Ellis is generating very positive offseason buzz since arriving at USC and should be in store for a big season. Is now in the 60s of ESPN's 2022 NBA draft rankings. Averaged 10.2 points last season and can put up points in a hurry.

28. DeVante' Jones, Michigan (transfer): Jones was the Sun Belt Player of the Year last season at Coastal Carolina and then impressed NBA scouts during the pre-draft process with his ability at both ends of the floor. Will step in immediately at the point guard spot for Juwan Howard.

29. Xavier Pinson, LSU (transfer): Pinson is a proven SEC scorer, averaging 13.6 points last season at Missouri, including a 36-point performance against TCU. And now with Adam Miller's injury, Will Wade is going to need Pinson to get buckets early.

30. Chris Lykes, Arkansas (transfer): Of all the Arkansas newcomers, expect Lykes to make the biggest impact. Was a big-time playmaker at Miami, averaging 15.4 points and shooting 38.1% from 3 two seasons ago before injury issues in 2020-21.

31. Walker Kessler, Auburn (transfer): The former five-star prospect was stuck behind a trio of talented bigs in Chapel Hill but showed flashes down the stretch of the season. If he gets an extended run of minutes, he'll make an impact at both ends of the floor.

32. Harrison Ingram, Stanford (freshman): They don't come more competitive and win-first in the 2021 class than Ingram. He'll produce from a points and rebounds perspective, but he'll also do the little things that contribute to a win.

33. Alonzo Verge Jr., Nebraska (transfer): A truly explosive scorer, Verge will have the green light in Fred Hoiberg's system this season. Scored 43 points in a game two seasons ago at Arizona State, and 22 or more five times last season.

34. Sahvir Wheeler, Kentucky (transfer): It will be interesting to see how he and Washington coexist in the backcourt, but they don't come much better than Wheeler at the point. He led the SEC and ranked fourth nationally in assists last season at Georgia.

35. Jayden Gardner, Virginia (transfer): Virginia has very little returning production from last season -- and Gardner should fill that void. He's been outrageously productive the past three seasons at East Carolina, including averaging 18.3 points and 8.3 boards in 2020-21.

36. Kevin Obanor, Texas Tech (transfer): Obanor was productive all last season, but became a national name during Oral Roberts' NCAA tournament run, totaling 70 points and 33 rebounds with three double-doubles in four games.

37. Nolan Hickman, Gonzaga (freshman): Perimeter minutes will be a constant competition in Spokane this season, but Hickman might find himself in the lineup pretty quickly. Had a very strong senior season and brings impressive feel to the point guard spot.

38. Trevor Keels, Duke (freshman): One of the best pure scorers in the 2021 class, Keels could be in and out of Durham quicker than expected if the preseason hype is to be believed. He has a college-ready body and can put up points in a hurry.

39. JD Davison, Alabama (freshman): Davison is one of the more intriguing prospects entering college this season. He's extremely athletic and dynamic in transition, capable of consistent above-the-rim plays. Should fit in well between Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford.

40. Aminu Mohammed, Georgetown (freshman): One of the highest-ranked signees in recent Georgetown history, Mohammed is expected to be the best freshman in the Big East. He is outstanding going to the rim and playing downhill.

41. Toumani Camara, Dayton (transfer): Camara should be the best newcomer in the Atlantic 10 and word out of Dayton has been positive. Averaged 12.8 points and 7.7 boards in the SEC for Georgia last season. Terrific pickup for Anthony Grant.

42. Fatts Russell, Maryland (transfer): Russell will be the key to Maryland's season, if he can run the show and adapt to the Big Ten. Was one of the best point guards in the country two seasons ago, and still averaged 14.7 points and 4.5 assists last season at Rhode Island.

43. De'Vion Harmon, Oregon (transfer): The Ducks have a few players who can handle the ball this season, but Harmon was very good as a sophomore at Oklahoma last campaign. Averaged 12.9 points a year ago.

44. Peyton Watson, UCLA (freshman): A likely lottery pick whenever he leaves Westwood, Watson could take a back seat offensively to Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr. on the wings, but he brings a different dimension to the Bruins. He'll make an impact at both ends.

45. Daimion Collins, Kentucky (freshman): I don't know if Collins starts from day one in Lexington, but he might have more highlight-reel plays than anyone on the roster. He has a super-high ceiling and could be a one-and-done NBA draft prospect.

46. Noah Locke, Louisville (transfer): With the departures of Carlik Jones and David Johnson, Chris Mack needs someone to provide consistent offense. Locke might be that guy. He's a terrific outside shooter and averaged about 10 points all three seasons at Florida.

47. Dylan Disu, Texas (transfer): Disu is the X-factor for Texas this season. He's been limited after undergoing knee surgery in February, but he averaged 15.0 points and 9.2 rebounds at Vanderbilt and brings physicality and size inside.

48. Emanuel Miller, TCU (transfer): Miller averaged 16.2 points and 8.2 rebounds last season at Texas A&M, and Jamie Dixon is hoping his production carries over for what should be a sneaky-good TCU team.

49. Armaan Franklin, Virginia (transfer): Franklin is expected to provide an immediate scoring lift for Tony Bennett and Virginia this season. His best attribute is his shooting ability, hitting better than 42% from 3-point range last season at Indiana.

50. Earl Timberlake, Memphis (transfer): Had an injury-shortened freshman season at Miami and hasn't quite looked the part early at Memphis, but I'm still holding out hope he lives up to the potential he possessed just 12 months ago.

51. K.D. Johnson, Auburn (transfer): Should be one of the best pure scorers in the SEC if given the opportunity. Came off the bench almost exclusively at Georgia last season, but still averaged 13.5 points and had four 20-point games.

52. Keith Williams, Western Kentucky (transfer): A late pickup by Rick Stansbury, Williams immediately becomes one of the best players in Conference USA. Was a second-team All-AAC performer last season at Cincinnati after averaging 14.3 points.

53. Jordan Brown, Louisiana (transfer): Brown came out of high school with plenty of hype, but has had up and down seasons at Nevada and Arizona. Now in the Sun Belt, Brown is one of the most talented players in the league and should dominate.

54. Elijah Olaniyi, Stony Brook (transfer): The last time Olaniyi was in the America East, he averaged 18.0 points at Stony Brook. And in the interim, he averaged double figures at Miami. He'll lead what should be a title contender.

55. Kendall Brown, Baylor (freshman): A five-star prospect, Brown was picked as the Freshman of the Year in the Big 12 this season. With Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer reportedly looking good in preseason, Brown might not have to shoulder too much of the scoring load.

56. Timmy Allen, Texas (transfer): With the Longhorns' depth in the backcourt and in the post, Allen might not see the same role he had last season at Utah -- but he's extremely versatile and averaged 17.2 points and 3.9 assists while earning first-team all-league honors.

57. Jordan Hawkins, UConn (freshman): The one question all offseason for the Huskies was how they would replace James Bouknight. While Hawkins won't do it himself, he might start right away in the backcourt. He's a high-level scorer who can make shots.

58. Mouhamed Gueye, Washington State (freshman): Viewed as a steal when he committed to the Cougars, Gueye hasn't disappointed so far in Pullman. Early indications are that he'll play a big role right away as a freshman.

59. Qudus Wahab, Maryland (transfer): The Terrapins needed a post player entering the offseason, and Wahab was one of the best to hit the portal. Averaged 12.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks and dominated Colorado in an NCAA tournament loss.

60. Jacob Young, Oregon (transfer): Young was outstanding last season for Rutgers, and now joins a deep and talented Oregon team. Will be interesting to see how Altman doles out perimeter minutes. Averaged 14.1 points and 3.4 assists last season.

61. Storm Murphy, Virginia Tech (transfer): Reunited with former coach Mike Young, whom he played under at Wofford, Murphy will start right away at the point guard spot. Excellent shooter (40% from 3) who averaged 17.8 points and 4.3 assists.

62. Efton Reid, LSU (freshman): One of the best big men in the 2021 class, Reid has plenty of skill and should make his biggest impact on the offensive end. The 6-foot-11 center has an advanced post game and will be counted upon quickly in Baton Rouge.

63. Tyrece Radford, Texas A&M (transfer): Radford left Virginia Tech late in the offseason, but his availability was a welcome addition for Buzz Williams. Averaged 12.2 points and 5.9 rebounds and was highly effective when on the floor.

64. Al Durham, Providence (transfer): Durham was a consistent starter the past three seasons at Indiana, and became an efficient playmaker and perimeter shooter. Has reportedly looked great in preseason practices and scrimmages.

65. Tamar Bates, Indiana (freshman): Bates showed flashes during Indiana's summer trip to the Bahamas and could find himself in the starting lineup sooner rather than later. Was a huge pickup for Mike Woodson after taking over in Bloomington.

66. Moussa Diabate, Michigan (freshman): It's going to be hard to keep Diabate off the floor, even with Brandon Johns Jr. and Hunter Dickinson returning up front. Diabate plays with a super-high motor, makes an impact defensively and has developed his offensive game.

67. Hunter Sallis, Gonzaga (freshman): As mentioned, it's a crowded perimeter in Spokane -- but Sallis should find a way. He's a five-star prospect who can play either guard position and improved dramatically in his final two years of high school.

68. A.J. Griffin, Duke (freshman): A sprained right knee in early October will slow Griffin's development, but he has all the tools to be a first-round pick next spring. Will have to be patient behind Keels and Wendell Moore Jr. once he gets fully healthy.

69. Matthew Cleveland, Florida State (freshman): This spot could just as easily go to Kentucky transfer Cam'Ron Fletcher if he ends up starting consistently for the Seminoles. But Cleveland has great size and length, can score at all three levels and makes plays in transition.

70. Arthur Kaluma, Creighton (freshman): The former UNLV signee is the most talented member of Creighton's deep incoming class. Kaluma can make plays at both ends of the floor, and gained experience playing for the Ugandan national team in the summer.

71. Manny Obaseki, Texas A&M (freshman): Obaseki had a strong senior season in Texas and brings an aggressive, high-energy brand of basketball to College Station. That should suit Williams quite well. The coach has raved about Obaseki's defense in preseason.

72. Jeremy Sochan, Baylor (freshman): The Sochan hype coming out of Waco gets louder every week -- although he might start the season behind a couple veterans in the frontcourt. But he's skilled, can play at both ends of the floor and is only getting better.

73 and 74. Elijah Joiner and Tyson Jolly, Iona (transfers): Rick Pitino's Gaels are the favorites in the MAAC this season, and the additions of Joiner and Jolly are key to those expectations. Joiner was a consistent playmaker at Tulsa, while Jolly showed scoring ability at SMU.

75. DaRon Holmes, Dayton (freshman): The second Dayton newcomer on this list, Holmes is a top-50 recruit who should have a sizable impact from day one with the Flyers. He's a versatile frontcourt piece who can score inside and out.

76. Justin Powell, Tennessee (transfer): One of the pleasant surprises of the first half of last season, Powell averaged 11.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists and shot 44.2% from 3 when healthy. Will play alongside Chandler for the Vols.

77. Liam Robbins, Vanderbilt (transfer): Robbins has been an impact performer at two stops already, starting his career at Drake before spending one season at Minnesota. Averaged 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks last season.

78. Jalen Pickett, Penn State (transfer): Likely to be the centerpiece of Micah Shrewsberry's first season with the Nittany Lions, Pickett is hoping to regain the form of his first two seasons with Siena. Good size, can make shots from the perimeter, with good vision.

79. Phlandrous Fleming Jr., Florida (transfer): Mike White brought in a slew of transfers, but word out of Gainesville is that Fleming has been highly impressive early on. First-team All-Big South selection at Charleston Southern who also won Defensive Player of the Year honors.

80. Stanley Umude, Arkansas (transfer): A three-time All-Summit selection at South Dakota, Umude averaged 21.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists last season. Should start immediately for the Razorbacks and his versatility will be a factor.

81. Daeshun Ruffin, Ole Miss (freshman): Ruffin is likely to be given the keys to the Ole Miss offense as a freshman. He's got great speed with the ball in his hands and can really score off the bounce. He's only 5-foot-9 but plays with a fearless attitude.

82. Tanner Groves, Oklahoma (transfer): Groves became a national name during the NCAA tournament with Eastern Washington, when he put up 35 points against Kansas in the first round. But he also won Big Sky Player of the Year honors. Should be an anchor in Porter Moser's first season.

83. Paul Atkinson, Notre Dame (transfer): The Fighting Irish have NCAA tournament expectations this season, and Atkinson is a major reason for those hopes. Co-player of the year in the Ivy League with Yale in 2019-20 before sitting out last season.

84. Myles Johnson, UCLA (transfer): If there's a transfer who fits Mick Cronin's ethos of defense and toughness, Johnson is that guy. He was one of the best defensive players in the Big Ten last season, averaging 8.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks with Rutgers.

85. Moussa Cisse, Oklahoma State (transfer): Cisse was a relative disappointment last season at Memphis, especially on the offensive end, but he's one of the best defensive big men in the country and adds a different dimension to the Cowboys on the interior.

86. Noah Gurley, Alabama (transfer): Nate Oats has had a lot of success with versatile frontcourt pieces, and Gurley fits that mold. Should start immediately up front for the Crimson Tide. Averaged 15.4 points last season at Furman.

87. Tyrese Hunter, Iowa State (freshman): T.J. Otzelberger should have the Cyclones playing at a faster tempo than they did under Steve Prohm, and that should be great news for Hunter. He's outstanding in transition, loves to push the ball and is explosive at the rim.

88. Rocket Watts, Mississippi State (transfer): Has had some injury issues in the preseason, but Ben Howland will need him healthy -- and effective -- at the point guard spot this season. Watts didn't live up to expectations during two seasons at Michigan State.

89. Xavier Johnson, Indiana (transfer): The expectation is Johnson starts in the backcourt, but he'll need to cut down on turnovers and be more of a two-way player. Left Pittsburgh with a few weeks remaining in the system, but was highly productive (14.2 PPG, 5.7 APG).

90. Blake Wesley, Notre Dame (freshman): Mike Brey couldn't rave more about Wesley when we spoke with him recently. Wesley could be a pro -- and might not be in South Bend for four years. The Irish return a lot of experience on the perimeter, but Wesley will get minutes.

91. Julian Reese, Maryland (freshman): Word coming out of College Park all summer was that Reese was going to make a huge impact -- and could be an NBA draft pick. That's been tempered somewhat, mostly due to the players ahead of him upfront, but Reese is going to make an impact.

Next six: Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, Tennessee; Koby McEwen, Weber State; Kevin Samuel, Florida Gulf Coast; Bryce Thompson, Oklahoma State; Marcus Williams, Texas A&M; Jalen Cone, Northern Arizona

Seven more mid-major freshmen to watch: Zion Harmon, Western Kentucky; Wesley Cardet Jr., Samford; Tucker DeVries, Drake; Mannie Harris, Georgia Southern; AJ Neal, Long Beach State; Tevin Smith, Denver; Emareyon McDonald, Northwestern State

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