The Christmas holiday weekend means there’s a lot of statistical noise around the latest coronavirus numbers.
The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services posted numbers on Saturday, Dec. 26, that included data from Thursday and Friday as well as Saturday. But the slowdown in people being tested over over the holiday weekend -- as well as the likelihood testing labs and local public health department were short-staffed in people who report the data -- means the numbers are very likely incomplete.
That said, Michigan’s seven-day average of new cases is now 2,640, a 34% drop from 4,010 a week ago today. The seven-day average positivity rate is now 8.3%, down from 9.9% a week ago.
Below is a closer look at the county-level data, based on the metrics used by the Michigan Department of Heath and Human Services in assessing coronavirus risk levels. The scale used by MDHHS has six levels -- “low” plus Levels A-E.
First, a look at the seven-day average positivity rates by county, grouped by the state’s metric.
- Level E (over 20%): Hillsdale.
- Level D (15-20%): Branch, Missaukee and Cass.
- Level C (10-15%): 15 counties, highest to lowest -- Presque Isle, Lapeer, St. Clair, Saginaw, Shiawassee, Tuscola, Montmorency, Lenawee, Roscommon, Clare, Midland, Van Buren, Gladwin, Huron and Genesee.
- Level B (7-10%): 37 counties, highest to lowest -- Macomb, Arenac, St Joseph, Osceola, Ogemaw, Monroe, Berrien, Newaygo, Wexford, Dickinson, Mecosta, Jackson, Wayne, Livingston, Isabella, Oceana, Ottawa, Bay, Iosco, Kent, Eaton, Alcona, Kalamazoo, Oakland, Clinton, Cheboygan, Kalkaska, Calhoun, Mason, Ionia, Ingham, Muskegon, Leelanau, Barry, Menominee, Grand Traverse and Allegan.
- Level A (3-7%): 16 counties -- Manistee, Benzie, Montcalm, Chippewa, Washtenaw, Sanilac, Alpena, Otsego, Lake, Emmet, Gratiot, Antrim, Oscoda, Crawford, Delta and Marquette.
- Low (under 3%): 11 counties -- Iron, Alger, Ontonagon, Houghton, Charlevoix, Luce, Mackinac, Gogebic, Baraga, Schoolcraft and Keweenaw.
The chart below allows you to look up any county by name to see the seven-day average positivity rate for Dec. 16-22.
The interactive map below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
New cases per capita
New daily cases per capita is another metric used by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services to access coronavirus risk.
In this metric -- which calculates the average number of new cases per 1 million residents -- 64 counties are at Level E, the highest risk level on the MDHHS scale. The cutoff for Level E is 150 cases per day per million residents.
The levels for the other nine counties:
- Level D (70 to 149 cases per million): Keweenaw, Arenac, Cheboygan, Benzie, Otsego, Lake, Delta, Chippewa, Crawford, Mackinac, Houghton, Alcona, Emmet and Charlevoix.
- Level C (40 to 69 cases per million): Luce, Ontonagon and Alger.
- Level B (20 to 39 cases per million): Gogebic.
- Low (below 7 cases per million): Schoolcraft.
Here is an online database that allows readers to see the number of new coronavirus cases in the past seven days compared to the previous week, as well as the per capita number that adjusts for population. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported in the last seven days has gone up or down compared to the previous seven days.
MDHHS overall score by region
MDHHS has assigned an overall score to each of the state’s MI Start regions, looking at factors such as new cases and deaths per capita, test positivity rates, number of tests administered and emergency department visits for COVID-19 symptoms.
Since Nov. 4, all eight of Michigan’s MI Start regions have been at the highest level the state uses to assess coronavirus risk.
This interactive map shows those eight regions and their current scores. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying data.
(The state’s MI Start districts: Region 1 is the Detroit region; Region 2 is Grand Rapids; Region 3, Kalamazoo; Region 4, Saginaw; Region 5, Lansing; Region 6, Traverse City; Region 7, Jackson, and Region 8, the Upper Peninsula.)
More on MLive:
‘Those women from Michigan’ led the state through its toughest year yet
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