A decade or so from now, if all goes as planned, Warriors forward Draymond Green will be inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
A highlight video featuring some of his most iconic moments will play on the big screen, but to get at the core of what makes Green great, no clip of him shouting expletives or blocking shots will suffice. What sets Green apart, more than even his leadership and competitive spirit, is his awareness — not just of his limitations, but of everything unfolding in front of him.
Green may be as good as anyone in NBA history at processing all that he sees and, within a fraction of a second, making the right decision. While anchoring the back line of the Warriors’ defense, he know how to lurk near a play, monitoring it and, without over-committing, maintaining the proper stance and positioning to force an ill-advised shot. On offense, Green excels at making low-angle leading passes to cutters, weak-side lobs to big men and quick swing passes to shooters.
Given that Green’s effectiveness comes in his awareness and timing, not gaudy point totals, many people — even those who should be basketball experts — struggle to quantify his effect on games. In a poll taken by the Athletic in spring 2019, NBA players chose Green and Russell Westbrook as the league’s most overrated players.
The same players who voted for Green in that poll almost surely view his recent production — or lack thereof — as proof that he’s on the decline. More than a quarter of the way through the season, Green is averaging 4.8 points on 34.9% shooting (21.2% from 3-point range), 4.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.1 of a block per game.
Assists aside, all of those numbers represent his worst output since he averaged 13.4 minutes per game — barely more than half his current playing time — as a rookie in 2012-13. But when asked if the Warriors need more out of Green, head coach Steve Kerr said, “I don’t think I need anything more from Draymond. I think his engagement has been great. He really is doing a great job leading the team.
“He’s very vocal in film sessions. He’s vocal in trying to lead a group of guys in how to become a team when he is on the floor. He’s been active. He helps our defense a ton.”
Kerr understands what many do not: A player with Green’s unique gifts can’t be judged by traditional stats. Green’s grasp of angles, timing and pace allows Golden State to channel a free-flowing style that can be described as a cross between “Hoosiers” and the Harlem Globetrotters on speed.
Who: Celtics (10-8) at Warriors (11-9)
When: 7 p.m.
Where: Chase Center
TV/Radio: TNT/95.7
There is a reason why, in the 2,808 minutes Green was on the floor in the 2015-16 season, the Warriors outscored opponents by a combined 1,073 points. To this day, that’s the highest plus-minus a player has posted in the NBA.
Green’s vocal ways might border on obnoxious at times, but he is a proven accessory to winning basketball. In the Warriors’ first five games this season, including four that Green missed with a foot issue and one in which he was on a minutes restriction, they posted the NBA’s fourth-worst defensive rating. With Green back around his normal playing time in the 15 games since then, Golden State is tied for seventh in defensive rating.
According to NBA.com, the Warriors have outscored opponents by a 3.0 net rating with Green on the floor this season and are a minus-3.8 without him. Such analytics have long been used to illustrate Green’s value, but he continues to get criticized for his box scores. This is because, as Green has said many times over the years, “Most people don’t really know basketball.”
There are rare occasions when his court awareness and positioning produce a “SportsCenter”-worthy highlight. A prime example came in a Jan. 12 loss to the Pacers when Green was on the wrong end of a 3-on-1 fast-break. Instead of selling out to stop the ballhandler, he stayed patient and forced a turnover.
But in many instances, Green’s most brilliant sequences get overlooked.
Late in the Warriors’ Jan. 3 win over Portland, Green caught a pass from Stephen Curry at the top of the arc, turned toward his left, flipped the ball back to Curry and set a screen on forward Robert Covington while Curry dribbled once and spotted up for a 3-point try. The shot rimmed out, but Green had managed to get him a clean look through feel and timing.
A week later against Toronto, Green stood along the baseline, waiting for Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet to find forward O.G. Anunoby in the paint. As soon as Anunoby got the ball, Green ran over and used his 7-foot-1 wingspan to force a miss at the rim. Had Green moved a moment earlier or later, Toronto could’ve gotten a much better look.
Green understands that defense isn’t about taking away the opponent’s shot, but rather limiting the quality of the shot. One of his skills is the ability to fight the urge to chase blocks. Instead of selling out and giving up a high-quality look as a result, Green waits and makes life difficult on the shooter.
Almost everything Green does is thought out, from wearing a certain outfit to a game or calling out Detroit guard Rodney McGruder in a recent news conference. Early last month, when Green returned from a muscle strain in his right foot, he told himself he wasn’t going to worry about scoring. His focus would be on getting his teammates in a flow, acting as a coach on the floor, finding open shooters and organizing the defense.
In each of Green’s first four games back, he didn’t shoot more than three times. Once he saw that newcomers were getting comfortable in the Warriors’ read-and-react system, he started to seize more wide-open looks, driving in for layups or hitting the occasional 3-point try.
Green’s longtime trainer, Travis Walton, sees that process as an important milestone: Now in his ninth NBA season, Green is comfortable with being an elite role player. Scoring isn’t as much of a priority because he does so many other things better.
“I think he’s at peace with his game,” Walton said. “When you’re at peace with your game, you know what you’re going to do. You know what you’re going to bring. It’s not all summed up in scoring. It’s summed up in doing everything else.”
Green is not yet satisfied with his play. There have been shots he should’ve made or defensive rotations on which he was slow.
But he believes he’s starting to reach the peak of his abilities, and that makes him excited.
“I think I’m like two, three weeks away,” Green said. “I just need to continue to get in better shape. My speed is kind of getting there.”
Connor Letourneau covers the Warriors for The San Francisco Chronicle. Email: cletourneau@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @Con_Chron
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